Uncertainty in science

Uncertainty in science

An article written by Professor Tim Palmer FRS.

Recognition of uncertainty is a characteristic of the scientific method and can be viewed from different aspects – mathematical, philosophical and statistical. Important decisions are made, in government and business, in the light of uncertain scientific advice, yet the methods by which different scientific disciplines assess and communicate uncertainty are rarely compared. A cross-fertilisation of ideas for how to represent and communicate uncertainty could have enormous benefits on our understanding of everything from economics to health issues or climate change.

Recent public debate about climate change has undoubtedly demonstrated that uncertainty in science needs to be more effectively explained. Despite a growing number of suggestions that the science of climate change is becoming more uncertain, weather and climate scientists have, in fact, pioneered techniques to assess uncertainty in the evolution of complex nonlinear systems and our understanding is growing more confident. However, we are not yet fully exploiting the inherent value of our knowledge of uncertainty in communicating with business, government, the media and the public.

About arnulfo

veterano del ciberespacio
This entry was posted in Γαῖα and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s