Natural, economic, and social conditions make Mexico highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Climate change will increase the intensity of droughts and hurricanes. Exacerbating inequities in employment, health, and access to food.
Climate models suggest that global warming could bring warmer, drier conditions to Mexico. Although precipitation increases are projected by some models, in most cases they do not compensate for increases in potential evaporation. Thus, soil moisture and water availability may decrease over much of Mexico with serious consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, urban and industrial water supplies, hydropower and ecosystems.
The number of people moving from Mexico to the United States has dropped sharply over the past decade. But researchers say a new force could drive more people across the U.S.-Mexico border in the coming decades: climate change.
Several studies have singled out climate change as a potentially significant driver of future U.S.-Mexico migration.
It’s hard to say how many people could be pushed across the U.S.-Mexico border by climate change, in part because there’s been relatively little research on the subject so far.
A 2010 study co-authored by Oppenheimer found that up to 6.7 million people could come to the United States from Mexico because of global warming by 2080. A study last year from researchers at the University of California Davis projected just 41,000 additional immigrants over the next 50 years because of climate change.
One study predicts that 10 percent of Mexicans ages 15 to 65 could eventually try to emigrate north because of rising temperatures, drought and floods, potentially scattering millions of people and heightening already extreme political tensions over immigration.
Mexico has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 22% below baseline in 2030, equivalent to a 9% increase in emissions above 2010 levels. Mexico will not meet either its 2020 or 2030 emissions targets, but there is at least a discourse of caring.